as published in Bisnis Indonesia daily newspaper
Monday, 11/01/2010 00:00 WIB
Investors observe emitter performance
JAKARTA: The growing stock market trend early the year is estimated to continue along with the positive performance expectation of national emitter last year as reflected from the finance statement per December 2009.
Investors anticipation to the emitter fundamental performance potentially becomes the following rally of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) to the 2,600 psychological point.
Analyst of PT BNI Securities Akhmad Nurcahyadi said in general the controllable economy growth becomes the fundamental for index rise in the medium term provided that the advanced countries will not increase their monetary interest rate as investment reference yet.
"Investors believe that January is the momentum for buy particularly if emitter performance per 2009 was positive. On contrary, if finance report is under expectation and economy of advanced countries got faster recovery than expected, it might be corrected," he said to Bisnis yesterday.
Global economy recovery along with the mounting advanced country interest rate could cause the move of foreign investment flowing to Indonesia and other developing countries.
Global investors surely opt for advanced countries capital market with higher liquidity than the bourse in the developing countries. "But the data of global economy recovery has so far been questionable of whether or not it is stable," said Akhmad.
The bourse fluctuation will happen to trade this week following the incoming investors for seeking the next gain and investors targeting buy position since new year.
"If the 2,600 psychological level passes this week, JCI is potentially to test the next psychological level at 2,700. The spread technically is between 2,550 and 2,650."
But he recommended investors to note the intensity of political issues in relation with the controversy of Bank Century and the 100 days agenda evaluation of President SBY and his cabinets.
Positive sentiment of global bourse boosted the index of Dow Jones rose 0.11 percent (11.33 points) to the level of 10,618.19 last week. Most regional bourse also increased as it is with Hang Seng index with 0.12 percent rise, Nikkei 225 sharply rose 1.09 percent, and KOSPI grew 0.7 percent.
Besides, the government bonds (SUN) at secondary market has soaring outlook this week and cut down the yield by 15 basis points (bps) to 30 bps due to the positive January effect happened last week.
January effect is deemed the buyback early of the year as it had sold the investment instrument on yearend.
Head of Pricing of PT Penilai Harga Efek Indonesia (PHEI/Indonesia Bond Pricing Agency) Ronny Wicaksono said the soaring SUN price will happen after government auction tomorrow (Tuesday). The government will sell SUN at IDR5 trillion.
"The trade was very good this week reaching IDR6-7 trillion. Next week is positive after auction but it will not be as that of last week." (Bisnis/ags)